Chapter 2 The Demographic Structure Of The Indian Society

Some Theories And Concepts In Demography

Demography is the systematic study of population, focusing on its size, structure, and changes through births, deaths, and migration. It involves both formal (quantitative) and social (qualitative) approaches. Demographic data, collected through censuses and surveys, are crucial for state policy and understanding social phenomena, as exemplified by Durkheim's study of suicide rates.

The Malthusian Theory Of Population Growth

Thomas Robert Malthus's theory (1798) pessimistically argued that population grows geometrically while subsistence resources grow arithmetically, leading to inevitable poverty, famine, and disease (positive checks) unless population growth is controlled through preventive checks (e.g., delayed marriage). While Malthus's predictions about food production were proven wrong by technological advancements, his ideas on population control and resource balance remain relevant. Critics argued that poverty stems from unequal resource distribution, not just population size.

Box 2.1 provides a quote from Malthus and biographical information.

Activity 2.1 asks students to research factors that increased agricultural productivity and other reasons why Malthus's predictions were incorrect.

The Theory Of Demographic Transition

This theory posits that population growth follows a pattern linked to economic development, moving through three phases:

• Phase 1 (Underdeveloped): High birth rates and high death rates result in low population growth.
• Phase 2 (Transitional): Death rates fall due to improved healthcare and nutrition, while birth rates remain high, causing a "population explosion."
• Phase 3 (Developed): Both birth and death rates decline significantly, leading to low population growth.

India is considered to be in the transitional phase, with falling death rates but a slower decline in birth rates.

Common Concepts And Indicators

Demographic concepts are often expressed as rates or ratios:

• Birth Rate: Number of live births per 1,000 population per year.
• Death Rate: Number of deaths per 1,000 population per year.
• Rate of Natural Increase: The difference between the birth rate and the death rate.
• Fertility Rate: Number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-49.
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to have over her reproductive life.
• Infant Mortality Rate: Number of deaths of infants under one year per 1,000 live births.
• Maternal Mortality Rate: Number of maternal deaths per 1,000 live births.
• Life Expectancy: The average number of years a person is expected to live.
• Sex Ratio: Number of females per 1,000 males. Historically, females have a slight advantage due to higher resistance to disease and longer lifespan, but declining child sex ratios in India indicate social issues like son preference and selective abortions.
• Age Structure: The proportion of people in different age groups, changing with development and life expectancy.
• Dependency Ratio: The ratio of dependents (under 15 and over 64) to the working-age population (15-64). A falling ratio can indicate a 'demographic dividend' (economic benefit from a larger workforce), but requires education and employment to be realized.

Activity 2.1 relates to Malthus's theory and agricultural productivity. Activity 2.2 prompts reflection on factors influencing family size decisions and birth rates.

Size And Growth Of India’s Population

India is the world's second most populous country. While population growth was moderate between 1901-1951 (affected by the 1918-19 influenza pandemic), it significantly increased post-independence, peaking between 1961-1981. Although the growth rate has since declined, it remains high by developing country standards. The decline in death rates after 1921, due to better control of epidemics, famines, and improved medical facilities, contrasted with a slower decline in birth rates, leading to rapid population growth.

Chart 1 shows the divergence of birth and death rates after 1921. Table 1 provides population figures and growth rates from 1901-2011.

Box 2.2: The Global Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19 details the severe impact of the Spanish Flu.

Regional variations in fertility rates are significant, with states like Kerala having TFRs below replacement level, indicating future population decline, while states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar still have high TFRs contributing significantly to future population growth.

Chart 2 illustrates the projected population growth contributions from different regions of India up to 2041.

Age Structure Of The Indian Population

India has a young population, with a majority below 15 years of age. However, the age structure is shifting due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. The proportion of the under-15 group is decreasing, while the 60+ group is increasing, leading to an "ageing of the population."

This changing structure offers a "demographic dividend" – a potential economic benefit from a larger working-age population relative to dependents. However, this potential can only be realized through increased education and employment opportunities. Failure to utilize this workforce effectively can hinder growth.

Table 2 shows changes in age composition from 1961-2026, and Chart 4 depicts population pyramids for Kerala and Uttar Pradesh in 2026, highlighting regional differences in age structure.

Box 2.3 discusses the concept of demographic dividend and the conditions necessary for India to capitalize on it.

Activity 2.3 encourages students to analyze population pyramids and trace age cohorts over time.

The Declining Sex-ratio In India

India's sex ratio (females per 1,000 males) has been declining for over a century, reaching a low of 927 in 1991 and slightly improving to 943 in 2011. The child sex ratio (0-6 years) shows a more alarming decline, falling significantly below the overall sex ratio, particularly in prosperous regions.

This trend is attributed mainly to differential treatment of girl babies, including neglect, sex-selective abortions (facilitated by technologies like sonograms, despite legal bans), and female infanticide. The declining child sex ratio is particularly pronounced in prosperous states, suggesting that poverty is not the primary cause but rather social norms valuing sons over daughters and the ability of affluent families to afford selective practices.

Government initiatives like the 'Beti-Bachao, Beti-Padhao' program aim to address this issue.

Table 3 shows the historical trends of the sex ratio and child sex ratio in India. Map 2 illustrates state-wise child sex ratios in 2011.

Literacy

Literacy is a crucial prerequisite for education, empowerment, career options, participation in the knowledge economy, health awareness, and overall well-being. India has seen significant improvements in literacy rates since independence, with nearly two-thirds of the population now literate.

However, regional and gender disparities persist. Female literacy is lower than male literacy, though it has been rising at a faster rate. Historically disadvantaged groups like Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes generally have lower literacy rates, with even lower rates among women within these groups. States like Kerala show near-universal literacy, while states like Bihar lag behind. These inequalities in literacy can perpetuate intergenerational disadvantage.

Table 4 presents literacy rates in India from 1951 to 2011, highlighting male-female gaps and progress.

Rural-urban Differences

The majority of India's population still resides in rural areas, but the urban population has been steadily increasing its share. Urbanization has been driven by rural-to-urban migration, often due to limited opportunities in rural areas, declining common property resources, and the greater social anonymity and economic opportunities offered by cities. While rural areas remain politically significant, urban centers are growing in economic and social influence, with metropolises experiencing the fastest growth.

The increasing integration of rural areas into the consumer market through mass media and improved communication further bridges the gap between rural and urban lifestyles. Rural economies are also diversifying beyond agriculture into non-farm activities.

Table 5 shows the growth of rural and urban populations in India from 1901 to 2011. Activity 2.4 involves a survey on family migration patterns to understand rural-urban differences.

Population Policy In India

India was one of the first countries to adopt an official population policy in 1952, initially focusing on family planning through birth control promotion and public health improvements. The National Family Planning Programme faced a setback during the Emergency (1975-76) due to coercive sterilization measures.

Post-Emergency, the program was renamed the National Family Welfare Programme, shifting to voluntary methods. The National Population Policy of 2000, and subsequently the National Health Policy 2017, incorporated broader socio-demographic goals, including reducing fertility rates, improving public health, and increasing life expectancy.

Box 2.4: India’s Demographic Transition summarizes key demographic achievements and ongoing trends, noting a decline in fertility rates but population momentum due to a large reproductive-age cohort. Box 2.5: Important Goals of National Health Policy 2017 outlines targets for improving health outcomes, life expectancy, and reducing mortality and disease prevalence.